Where is gold going in 2011?

Gold and oil are very different in their investment characteristics since gold is purchased principally to hold as an inflation hedge and oil is purchased primarily for refinement into gasoline and other petroleum products. Typically, this makes oil much more subject...

Monetary Policy for 2011

One of the primary monetary news items to note as 2010 draws to a close is the announcement of more ‘quantitative easing’ by the Federal Reserve1. In plain terms, this means that the Fed will purchase treasuries on the open market. This will have the effect of...

S&P 500 vs. Gold Price

AmericanMonetaryAssociation.orgOne of the important ratios to keep in mind when examining the equity markets is the gold price relative to the major stock market indexes. This provides a valuable insight into the extent to which market values reflect a real shift of sentiment toward equity value, versus the extent to which the value has lost value, driving increases in nominal valuations to simply retain purchasing power. Over the last 35 years, the relative price of Gold1 and the S&P 5002 has oscillated up and down very significantly. In the aftermath of 2008 and the financial crisis, this ratio has regressed toward a value of 1.0, which indicates equal valuation for the S&P 500 index and an ounce of gold. In the latter half of 2010, the S&P 500 vs. Gold ratio dropped below 1.0 as Gold prices were pushed up by speculators seeking to hedge against expected future inflation. Our analysis indicates that this trend is likely to continue through 2011 as monetary expansion inflates both asset classes.

Predicting Interest Rates for 2011

One of the principal economic leading indicators for 2011 will be the movement of 10-year treasury rates. The reason for this is because 30-year fixed rate mortgages are indexed against the 10-year treasury, and interest rate movements have a dramatic impact on the...

13.1% Return on Denver Investments in 2011

The Denver area has been a historically stable real estate market for both owners and investors. Market values experienced a downward correction following the financial crisis of 2008, showed signs of stabilization as 2009 transpired, but that stabilization was...

Money Mischief

now, most people have heard about the second round of “Quantitative Easing” being conducted by the Federal Reserve. In short, this means that the Fed will be purchasing treasury bills with freshly printed money to inject more cash into the monetary system. To date,...

Property Investing Strengthens in Phoenix this Year

Market values in Phoenix are currently at approximately the same level as in the year 2000. The market area experienced a tremendous run-up during the real estate bubble and a spectacular during the financial crisis. During 2010, the regression back to fundamentals...

Why the Dollar is Inflating

The general price level in 2010 relative to 2009 shows average price levels that are nearly flat. The reason for this trend is significant commodity price increases in 2007 and 2008 that collapsed after the global financial crisis. Much of the reason for the price...