Jason Hartman starts the show with investment counselor Sara as they talk about providing quality for clients and investors. Then they discuss the historical lows of interest rates, looking at history as far as 3,000 years. Later, Jason hosts to discuss how an economy grows. They highlight debt.
Announcer 0:02
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it on now. here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 0:54
Welcome to Episode 1496 1496 Today, we will We’ll talk about economic cycles and why the market booms and why it crashes. We’ll have Pat Donahoe back to talk about that while he’s back. But we didn’t talk about that before. But that’s what we’re going to talk about today. But before we get to that, we’ve got our investment counselor, Sarah, and there is just so much going on out there in the marketplace. Sarah, welcome back. How are you? Hey, I’m good. Thanks for having me back. Well, it’s good to have you. So we are not formally terminating one of our local market specialists, but we are informally doing it. kind of the way Twitter and Facebook Don’t show your post if they don’t like the content, because that’s called ghosting. Right? So it’s, it’s the phone tag fade out. And you know what, folks let our competitor offer crappy properties and crappy service from their sellers. We’re not going to work with these people until they shape up. So shape up or ship out. Now you had a series of like in special Report issues communication issues. So folks, we want you to know that we’re going to relieve you of this problem. Okay.
Sara 2:09
Yeah, I mean, when we started working with them, we had these beautifully rehabbed single family homes. I mean, we were getting them and the renovations were done, and they were just gorgeous. And then we started noticing that the inventory was getting older and the rehabs were not as good. And we started having to fight a little bit more on the inspection reports to get all the line items taken care of, which is fine, as long as they make, you know, they make good on it. And then yeah, but then the communication started flowing, and all of a sudden, all the properties are super old. And those, the curb appeal is just horrible. And you know, every once in a while we get a good one off deal. And if we get that and we can provide it for our network, and we will, but we’re monitoring you know all of our relationships closely in you know, we just want good communication and now with all the great new construction, we haven’t coming online, you know, it’s just these older homes just can’t compete.
Jason Hartman 3:04
Yeah, so it varies and everything’s an individual case by case basis. So, you know, just remember everything we say here on the show is not a, it’s not an absolute, you can’t be absolutist about a lot of this stuff. It’s not the stock market. It’s not an airline ticket. Not that anybody buys those anymore. But this is not an exact commodity, right. Every house is an individual house. And but, you know, it just illustrates again, the point that these relationships, always start out with him, just so appreciative, kissing our feet, kissing our clients feet, wanting to just go out of their way for us, and we make their world because we send them so much business, and then for a while, it’s all good. And then as the old saying goes vulgarity breeds contempt. And they just stop doing the thing. You know, it’s like a relationship right? It just, if you don’t really work at it, it just gets old, you know? Like they’re not sending us flowers anymore. Not that they ever did
Sara 4:14
not getting any flour, no chocolates, you know?
Jason Hartman 4:17
notes you know, put put in a surprise place where you’ll discover them. I would set out for a same day follow up call for get the flowers. Yeah, right. Right, or an inspection report where he didn’t have to fight for client to get every little thing right. That should that should be normal. It should be expected. This is the way it goes. Yeah. So you gotta just at some point, you gotta just cut it off. And that’s that’s the reality of it.
Sara 4:48
That’s the reality. Very true. You know, we’re working harder than ever to provide more new construction because we just don’t have to deal with those line by line items in the inspection reports. You know, you get a few things that Map builder takes care of it right away. The tenants love the properties because they’re new. They want to stay for a long time. So it’s just really a win win new construction.
Jason Hartman 5:09
Absolutely, yeah, we want our clients to have good experiences. And if we can’t deliver those, it’s just not good. So let our competitor deal with the crappy inventory and the crappy sellers and their clients will have a crappy experience. So I guess the message there is listeners, if you want a good experience, you’re in the right place. If you want a bad one, go out and search around and find one of these people, these companies with lower standards. There you go. Gosh, you know what, Sarah for a long time. I mean, I remember I don’t know maybe 810 years ago, you were telling me we should have a reality show for what we do. It could totally be a drama reality show sometimes. Good. Yeah,
Sara 5:52
absolutely. Yeah, I know. We know everybody. We know everybody in their mom in this industry after all these years. And we know all their love story, too. I mean, we could really make this juicy if we wanted to.
Jason Hartman 6:05
It could be a juicy story for sure, no question about it. But hey, I want to talk a little bit with you for just a moment about financing. And I’m looking at a piece I clipped from an article. I think this from the Wall Street Journal. Yeah, I’m pretty sure. And you’ll have a comment on that. So let me just read it. Banks have pulled back sharply on lending to US consumers now. Understand, folks, this is all types of loans, not real estate, in particular, but all types of loans. So the banks, they’re getting scared, and rightfully so. I think that’s probably a legitimate response. They do remember 12 years ago reasonably well, what happened? So the article goes on to say they can’t tell who is credit worthy anymore. Millions of Americans are out of work and behind on their debts, but in many cases, the missed payments aren’t working. reflected in their credit scores, nor are they uniformly recorded on credit reports. Now, we’ve talked many times about the forbearance issue and the lenders making mistakes on reporting, whether that’s a delinquency or not, they’re not supposed to report it as a delinquency, blah, blah, blah. other episodes, we’ve we’ve discussed that, okay. But but the lenders are having a hard time telling who’s creditworthy and who’s not. So it’s not uniformly reported. The confusion stems from a provision in the government stimulus package, which says lenders that allow borrowers to defer their debt payments. Now, remember, folks, this is all types of debts. I don’t know about you, but my credit card companies are sending me emails saying, hey, ask about our COVID Relief Program. You know, you don’t have to pay you can wait 90 days and just keep charging stuff and you know, you don’t have to pay if you don’t want right so they can’t tell who’s paying and who’s not always it’s very murky for them. So it’s difficult for payments, but they can’t report these payments as late on credit reporting to the credit reporting companies, they say 100 million plus is the number of accounts on which Americans differ debt payments from March 1 through the end of May. This is according to TransUnion. But again, individual report now that’s aggregated information hundred million accounts. That’s not people, you know, there’s 327 million people or so in the country. And certain number in the workforce certain number of adults certain number have credit cards or credit accounts. That’s just an aggregated number, but they can’t report that individually. So understand that. The article goes on to say for years strong consumer spending and borrowing helped propel lenders to record profits. Now the economy is in shambles and they’re trying to figure out what will happen to all of the debt Americans racked up In better times, Well, I can tell you what’s going to happen already. There’s going to be a lot more government bailout actions coming. So so that will definitely happen. Sarah, what are you seeing? Yeah. And the financing markets?
Sara 9:15
Well, first of all, I could see how these lenders would have a hard time digging through all of this, right? Because they might not want to do a cash out refinance for somebody who is just going to pull all that cash out, and then, you know, default on that loan. So yeah, it’s crazy times. And I actually have an awesome, exciting story to tell you about myself.
Jason Hartman 9:37
Yes, you know, the properties you purchase through our network. You said to me in a message earlier today, they are on the infinite return program, the refi to die program, right? Yes.
Sara 9:49
Yep. I have two properties that are on Infinite return. So I just refinance three properties. Two of them were just street refinances. I lowered each of the payments by a couple hundred bucks. By getting a 3.375 interest rate lowest I’ve ever seen and working with you in 13 years. So that was exciting. And then on my other property now this one was one of those 5000 down properties that we used to have in about 2010 2011. And Gosh, I wish I had more money back then, and what about 10 of those, but I was limited in my resources then. So I got one. And I made appreciate it nicely. And I was able to pull some cash out of that property, and looking forward to rolling it into another property here pretty soon. So you can get the cash out refinances. And we have a lot of clients following this plan. Now, the crazy thing is that in March, I had the same fear that everybody else did you know, are my tenants going to pay their rent? Am I going to lose all my properties? What’s going on with the COVID and I was offered a forbearance on one of my properties, and I took it and then I got scared and I decided, you know what, there is a huge opportunity right now and I just made the payments anyways, because I was concerned that you know, what if it hits my credit, and then I’m not eligible to do that or refinances. So I just you could either go be on defense or you can be on offense, and I just decided, you know what, I have an opportunity because I’ve maintained my good credit. And, you know, I’ve been fortunate in that way, I understand that. A lot of this is out of everybody’s control right now. But if you’re in the situation, where you have good credit and you have equity in your properties, and you can lower your interest rates, at the very least help yourself out and restructure some of your debt. Because if we do see a dip in prices at some point, or we eventually see the interest rates go up, you’re going to look back on 2020 and wish you would have done something to better yourself. I want to your situation. I agree with you, Sarah, this is a good time to be on the offensive. And it is an incredible time you listen, I’m all for forbearance. I’m all for getting my part of the bailout but this time around. I didn’t take any forbearance. I haven’t done any loan modifications. We’ll see what the future holds. But I just don’t want it because the buying opportunities are too good right now. You know, I didn’t take any PPP money. I could if I wanted to jump through the hoops, but it’s just not it’s not worth that agony in the household to deal with all that stuff. So, but this is an incredible time literally, interest rates are the lowest they’ve been you ready for this folks? In 3000 years?
Jason Hartman 12:30
Wow, I’m not kidding.
Sara 12:34
Okay. I don’t even know anybody that’s 3000 years old. Neither do
Jason Hartman 12:41
I know someone who’s 20 850 years old, but I don’t know any 3000 year olds. Oh, man.
Sara 12:50
Yeah, it’s just that incredible time and you know, listen, if you are in a situation where you’re fortunate enough to be able to take advantage of These crazy interest rates, you know, at some point there’s going to be someone in your life that’s going to need help. And by empowering yourself, you’re going to put yourself in a position to be able to help somebody at some point. So, you know, do what you can to take the upper hand while you can, because we don’t know what the next couple years will bring.
Jason Hartman 13:19
But we, we know a few things about the next couple of years. We know that people want to socially distance we know there’s a mass migration to suburban properties. We know people are flocking out of big cities with high cost of living. That was already a trend. Corona virus accelerated it dramatically. Yeah. And we know everybody needs a place to sleep. That’s for sure thing, place to work. Right it so let them rent that from you. As that mass migration occurs, take advantage of it. This is how we’re going to see a from societal standpoint, we’re seeing a further and further divide in society because some people like Most of you listening can really seize this opportunity. And some can’t unfortunately, it’s just the way it is. But it’s incumbent on you if you can seize the opportunity to seize the opportunity, get yourself some good investment properties. Sarah, I know you’ve got to run and we’ve got to get to part two of this segment. But just for a quick moment, tell us about inventory a little bit inventory of properties. I mentioned yesterday on the show that, you know, we had a hedge fund come in and purchase 53 properties from one of our local market specialists. So we basically have completely sold out in one section with one of our Alabama providers, we have zero, unfortunately. So
Sara 14:42
we had five left today and we had a client come through on a 1031 exchange and pick up those last five, a lot of 1031 exchanges right now. So we are working hard every day calling our local market specialists called New builders trying to source the best inventory and we have a lot of great properties. New Construction reconstruction in Southwest Florida, of Jacksonville, Ocala and we’ve got some new construction duplexes quads. Some of them like I said, they’re under construction. So you might contract in on them today and wait several months for them to be built. Some are, you know, almost done. We’ve got some in Atlanta right now, some great properties that are new construction under 200,000. And those are going to be done. You know, this summer it looks like so, you know, check out our website Jason Hartman comm forward slash properties, but also make sure you’re communicating with your investment counselor, because we send out our own individual hot sheets. Sometimes I talk to clients and they’re not getting those hot sheets because maybe the email is going to spam. Make sure you schedule a consultation. Just kind of an update as to what your investment goals are for the year what properties you’re looking for. Can we help you restructure your debt to make your property’s cash flow better, and then we will help you plug into the best inventory and it is scattered Jason. I mean is All over the place, you know, one week we get like 10 awesome properties and the next week those 10 properties are gone. Yeah, we are really working to keep the good deals coming.
Jason Hartman 16:09
Good stuff. Well, hey, listeners, we are here to guide you to make your journey a success to help you build a fantastic nationwide portfolio of properties. Jason hartman.com, click on the properties section, but you must be working with an investment counselor. The website changes too quickly. There’s not enough inventory on there. You’ve got to be talking with an investment counselor. If you want to get the best properties right now, or any properties at all. Frankly, of course, if you’re in the US, our toll free number is one 800 Hartman, we will look forward to helping you build a great portfolio. Sarah, thanks for joining us. I know you got to run. I know you’ve got a client call right now. And here is part two of our episode today as we talk about the economic cycles Hey, Patrick, it’s good to see you again. They Same here, Jason, one of those listener questions you sent over was about the economy growing and shrinking, and why that happens. So we could talk about the business cycle or a variety of things. And then we have to ask ourselves, have the rules changed in an era of pandemics and riots, civil unrest? What do you think?
Patrick Donohoe 17:29
Like, first, I’d first say that it’s interesting that people are asking these questions, and I think it’s because they’re more aware of what’s going on in society than they have been in the past. And this is a this is a question that you can spend days on. I mean, there’s whole PhD programs on why this and why that as it relates to the economy, I think the long and short of it is, you know, the economy is just the measurement of resources that are used for particular purposes. And when the economy grows, I think that indicates that there is an increase in production increase in value. And so in a nutshell, in really easy terms, that’s why an economy grows right in theory. But I think our economy is different than when those kind of first economists started to define economies and then start to measure it. So today, our economy is in large part based on debt and consumption. And and that’s where it gets really complicated, in a sense, because most people think that money is value, but money is ultimately debt if you think about how money is created today, and it’s a different monetary system than past. The same time. The more you understand about that, the more questions I think you can ask because although our economy grows right GDP, obviously right now, but previous, you know, to, to COVID you know, the economy was growing at a small percentage Okay, but also a was growing was the expansion of credit and debt.
Jason Hartman 19:04
Right. So that is what expanded, I would say, you know, overall economic growth. So yes, we live in an economy that’s built on a house of cards essentially. And money is created through debt and this crazy fractional reserve banking system we have. You know, both of us have studied that stuff a lot. If people don’t understand it, believe me, it’s really obscure, and it’s hard to get your head around. It’s just so weird. Read books, like a creature from Jekyll Island. We both know G. Edward Griffin, of course, I’m sure you’ve interviewed him. I know I have on my podcast several times. And it’s just hard to get your head around this stuff. It’s, you know, even if you think you get it, it’s like there’s another layer. You could keep peeling back the onion on this. But I do think we’d be remiss if we didn’t just talk for a moment about the good old fashioned business cycle. And that’s largely an Austrian economic type of things. And if there’s any economic school of thought that I most subscribed to, and I think you too, it’s the Austrian school. And the Austrian School is, and by the way, this is by no means an academic definition. It’s just a sort of man on the street view of it is, you know, where they would say that the, the opposite of it would be john Maynard Keynes, the opposite would be Karl Marx, by the way, Karl Marx, as much as I don’t like him and don’t agree with him. I have to give him credit. He’s responsible for the deaths of hundreds of millions of people. I’m not getting giving him credit for that. I definitely do not like his ideas. But he is far and away the most influential economists in world history. He changed the world massively. The entire Soviet Union was based on his idea. And you know, it’s awful but so much the world adopted his his policy.
Patrick Donohoe 20:53
So sometimes you need contrast. Jason, do you need contrast to understand the value of one system verse when it’s compared to something
Jason Hartman 21:00
I love it. That’s a great, I’m glad you pointed that out. That’s really good. So Austrian school would say the wage create wealth is through capital formation and production. That’s like reality. And it totally makes sense. But we don’t live in that world. As you were alluding to a moment ago, we don’t live in a world of reality. We live in a world of money being a super symbolic idea, and really, literally an idea based on Fiat. And we live in a world where Keynesianism has prevailed largely, and it is the way it is. But going back to that Austrian School business cycle concept, let’s just talk about that for an idea. So they would say that the economy always acts in cycles. And you know, if you’re looking at a chart, it goes like this, and there is this cycle where it’s a boom time and there’s expansion and more inventory of products and services created. And I even say inventory in the world of services. Because if we look at what happened during the shutdowns, when nobody could get a haircut, nobody could go to a nail salon. Nobody could get a massage. Nobody could get a lot of stuff, right? Those are all services. So even services have an inventory in a sense, because if those businesses go out of business, which many of them will or have already, there’s lower inventory. Okay, now, we mostly think of inventory in terms of widgets. So this is an economic widget. And so inventories expand, because manufacturing expands, credit expands, and everything’s going well and there’s a wealth effect and people feel good. And then it gets to a point where people start to wonder they start to lose faith in the system. They think, gosh, this can’t go on forever. Maybe we better save a little money for a rainy day. Maybe the sun won’t always be shining. Okay, and they start Rain in their horns a little bit. And then you see the stock market pull back, right, and you see some bad days occur. And then you see the houses in your neighborhood are selling for those crazy prices they once for selling for. And you see, well, you know, maybe it’s not quite as easy to get a raise at my job or to get a new job or to get that promotion. Or maybe my company laid a few people off. People searched a little bearish, right. So that sets us up for the next cycle, which is the bus. So I’ll let you
Patrick Donohoe 23:31
Yeah, those are great. Those are great thoughts. And if you think about it, like the growth and the crash of economies, is in large part the dance between the rational and the irrational, and I think from the rational side of things, right, it’s, I think people are naturally wired to to grow first and foremost. And then they’re they’re wired to either get the same for less gay or get more for the same gay meaning. Phone, right and the efficiency of phone and technology, right, you’re paying a little bit more, but look at how much more you’re getting compared to five years ago, 10 years ago, or you get the same, you get the same for less price. I think the apple, the new c version of it, right is is much less. At the same time, it still does a lot. So I look at you know, just in a nutshell, that’s kind of the rational side of things. But then like you alluded to Jason, you have the irrational side of things, which is, which is emotion and I think emotion sometimes, a lot of times it drives behavior, okay, for one direction or or another. And when someone becomes afraid they behave a certain way. When somebody is excited, they behave a certain way. There’s like an investor curve, right, as far as risk levels are concerned. And the highest risk investment is when there’s like peak euphoria, right? The best time to invest is when there’s the greatest fear and despondency of people.
Jason Hartman 24:56
Right the bloody screen suit metaphor, right? Yeah, bye. When there’s blood in the streets and sell when everybody’s partying, right, exactly. So that’s that’s kind of like I would say, a very awesome way of looking at things. But I would say that the thing that’s important understand about the Austrian School of Economics is it’s based on freedom. There’s no government intervention, if somebody makes a bad choice, whether it’s starting a business or allocating capital to some no bailouts, and they fail, right? There’s no bailouts, they have to fail, they go bankrupt, they go out of business. And that’s necessary for the learning experience of how people provide a service provider a good to make sure that what their ideas in their mind is actually in demand in the economy, right. That’s what I love about creative destruction for sure. And Jupiter square. You know, we’re so afraid of failure. But failure is one of the greatest teachers especially in business. And if you just continue to band aid and band aid and band aid and band aids, something the bone is eventually going to break the wound is eventually going to get infected and A person’s going to die. That’s a very good point. And I wouldn’t put it maybe another way, though, because we all saw that with the bailouts right in the Great Recession, and a lot of people were very upset about the bailouts and the bailouts, prevent, they artificially prevent what needs to happen. And those those failures, those bankruptcies, those businesses going away, it needs to happen. And when you don’t let it happen, when you interfere with the process when the government comes in and bails them out, then you get this situation where you’re encouraging bad behavior. There’s a moral hazard as they say, and these companies and then the greater economy in general, they become like these zombie companies, and then the whole economy becomes like this zombie economy. Where Think of it this way, when you wake up in the morning, the first thing millions of people do is they have a cup of coffee. I know it’s the first thing I do pretty Fletch, okay, and you want to kind of jumpstart your system and your system will naturally wake up. I mean, Pat, you don’t drink coffee, but I do. And I didn’t used to, okay, I had this girlfriend got me into Starbucks years ago. And ever since then I’ve been addicted right? Not to them, but just coffee in general. So now I need it, but you don’t need it, and you still wake up. But I kind of need it as a crutch, right? Because my system has become used to it. And so after a while, you you know, like any form of addiction and caffeine is a addictive substance like many other things, many behaviors, you know, drugs, alcohol, that’s what we think of as addictions, overeating, whatever. But there’s lots of little addictions, we all engage in all the time. Okay, little addictive behaviors here and there, little compulsions. And what the nature of it is, is you always need more to get the same result. And the same thing happens to zombie companies and zombie economies. The poster child of this would be Japan in Japan has had, they first have the last decade than they have the last two decades. And then going into the last three decades, where their economy just no matter what you do, it just kind of can’t really get to where it was. And they have the highest debt to GDP ratio about 230% of any developed country, because they basically keep spending into it. And after a while, it just doesn’t work anymore. And those debt levels continue to grow and so forth. So right, yeah, it’s one of those things where you know, I love one of your 10 commandments of real estate investing because it alludes to using that and using debt using leverage as part of purchasing an asset because these days people don’t use debt to purchase their assets and purchase their savings. And what it does it kind of goes against our current economic system which is fueled by by debt mean debt is essentially priced into everything including real estate include including cars So you look at what exists today, whether it’s the Japan economy or whether it’s our economy, and the growth of the economy in large part is due to credit expansion when there is stimulus, and that’s why the Federal Reserve in the United States has had to do constant quantitative easing, and continue to expand because they have to grow. And the reason why they have to grow is because there’s interest, it’s due on the debt. Right, and they need to pay the interest. Yeah. So it’s one of those things where they have to grow the economy so that there’s greater output greater taxes, which then pays it’s a treadmill treadmill is
Patrick Donohoe 29:36
and that’s where, you know, Richard Duncan, I’m not sure how much you studied
Jason Hartman 29:38
him. I haven’t. Yeah, he’s been on my show several times. Yeah. And,
Patrick Donohoe 29:41
you know, he I think he understands as well, not to say that it’s a good system. I think it’s an incredibly flawed system, but it’s the system that we have, and his credit expands, things are most likely going to grow as credit contracts, things are going to crash. But this is the thing it’s like, dead is like an accelerator. It’s like you No gasoline or jet fuel. It’s an insider. Yeah, right. It just it makes everything go quicker, faster and and worse.
Jason Hartman 30:09
Yep. No, that’s that’s a great point. And the difference between using leverage to say buy real estate versus a country or, you know, bailing out companies that shouldn’t be bailed out, or, you know, spending on the welfare state that isn’t really a capital investment. Whereas the property you’re buying as long as the sensible property is a capital investment, look at the bottom line, maybe we can wrap up this little segment with that is that the idea is if you want to create real wealth, you’ve simply got to have capital formation. The capital can come in the form of savings, to invest or in terms of assets that produce income. That’s it, like it’s really that simple. You know, you cannot spend on welfare programs, or bailing out zombie companies to grow your economy. That’s not the way to spend your way out of it. It just gets progressively more difficult requires more stimulus every time more caffeine every time. You know, that idea.
Patrick Donohoe 31:19
So I’m gonna I’ll end with this Jason, which is, I think really interesting when I realized this. But let’s say you know, you have a government worker that is renting a home that you own that you’ve purchased with leverage, you purchase it the right way they’re paying, but the way in which they’re paid is based on the government being able to have debt and be able to provide capital in the form of debt so that that person can get paid. Same thing with if a person works for you know, fortune 500 company that is fueled in large part by corporate bonds, which they use to capitalize their company and work their company grow their company. That money is then used to pay this person who then pays the rent on your property. Same thing with the suppliers of law. You know, builders, you know, in large part A lot of that supply comes from being able to have access to debt which allows them to produce. So it’s, it’s interesting just to see debt is this is that kind of foundational thing, that Domino that’s required these days in order for the economic machine to be working.
Jason Hartman 32:18
We live in a world of credit based assets and when the credit dries up, things get tough, and there’s another cycle right there. Good stuff, Pat. Thanks for having the stock with me.
Jason Hartman 32:34
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