AMA 378: The Price of Panic, The Human Advantage, Infiltrated by Jay W. Richards

One of the important ratios to keep in mind when examining the equity markets is the gold price relative to the major stock market indexes. This provides a valuable insight into the extent to which market values reflect a real shift of sentiment toward equity value, versus the extent to which the value has lost value, driving increases in nominal valuations to simply retain purchasing power. Over the last 35 years, the relative price of Gold1 and the S&P 5002 has oscillated up and down very significantly. In the aftermath of 2008 and the financial crisis, this ratio has regressed toward a value of 1.0, which indicates equal valuation for the S&P 500 index and an ounce of gold. In the latter half of 2010, the S&P 500 vs. Gold ratio dropped below 1.0 as Gold prices were pushed up by speculators seeking to hedge against expected future inflation. Our analysis indicates that this trend is likely to continue through 2011 as monetary expansion inflates both asset classes.